Regional Economic Modeling
LEAMecon is an econometric input-output model originally developed by the LEAMlab at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. LEAMecon provides the economic projections information needed to estimate the demand for new development in a given region. Once that demand is determined, LEAM's dynamic spatial model allocates the demand across space and time in the form of land use change.
Not just a trend line
Like some other models out there, earlier versions of LEAM's dynamic spatial model used census population projections to drive land use change in a region. This approach poses at least three significant limitations. First, different aspects of growth--changes in the number of jobs, size of the workforce, and people--may not be consistent with each other. Second, there is no rigorous way to arrive at different estimates of demand as they relate to changes in the regional economy, for example, if one particular sector goes into decline. Third, the opportunity to connect with other models, such as air quality or travel demand models, is missed.
Validation
LEAMecon was validated in 2004-05 against existing past data, using the St. Louis region as a sample location. The model was fully revised in 2008 and will soon undergo a full conversion from SIC to NAICS data.
